As those of you who follow TropicalBytes on either Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tropicalbytes/  or FaceBook (1) TropicalBytes | Facebook  will know, I’ve been road tripping. As I type this, I am in Tzaneen, in the final third of a 3-week trip. In these 21 days I’ve amassed a truck-load of content – enough to drip out over a year of monthly stories. This means that some news will be old news by the time you read it so how do I decide what’s relevant right now and what can wait? Tough job but some stories just have to come first … one such is the current state of the industry and so that’s what we’ll be covering now. Because it had some very topical relevance, I’ve combined that with coverage of the Levubu Farmers’ Day I was privileged to attend yesterday …

Current state of mac and avocado farming.

It’s tight! Macs are faring better than avos even though prices are down from the R90-ish/kg into the R50s. Yields, especially in Levubu area, are down for the third year in a row – which places them in the financially unviable and most certainly unsustainable bracket. The avo market is under the most pressure and I had a few glimpses into the intensity of exactly that as I overheard desperate conversations about farmers having to PAY IN. I thought getting nothing for your crop was as devastating as it could get but it seems I am wrong as some farmers actually get invoiced by their processors for produce sold at a price too low to cover costs! WHAAAAT!? That’s awful … how’d we get here? Bit of a perfect storm really …

  • Avos are highly perishable. When they ripen (around 75-80% moisture content) they can hang on the tree for about another month (not without consequences but it’s possible). So the window of fruit viability is narrow – when they’re ready, they’re ready.
  • Market prices are determined by availability. Less fruit = higher prices. More fruit = lower prices. So everyone desperately tries to position their fruit in a market window where the supply is low.
  • Export options are limited – 99% of the SA’s export crop is going to Europe, UK and a little to Russia. Currently, we cannot supply to the US, Asian or eastern countries (more on this below under the Subtrop presentation at Levubu’s Farmers’ Day)
  • Head-to-head with other avo-producing nations. Peru’s plantings really came into production recently. Whereas we used to have the market to ourselves over a short period, their fruit is now ready at around the same time ours is so we dance a jig around each other in order to maximise prices. This year Peru’s fruit landed in Europe 2 weeks earlier than anticipated, at exactly the same time as ours. In addition to this the Israeli and Spanish crops were larger than expected – result = the market was oversupplied and prices tanked.
  • Inefficient ports. Avos have traditionally used the Cape Town port to export while Citrus has gone via Durban. Given that Durban gets knocked down every time it stands up (looting, floods …) Citrus moved its load to Cape Town … overloaded, the Cape port struggled to process efficiently and fruit spoilt.
  • Container shortage. China’s regular lockdowns have led to a stockpile of containers in that country and, subsequently, a worldwide shortage. No containers = no movement = spoilt fruit.
  • Delivery diversions. The Russian-Ukrainian war saw many shipments, destined for those shores, diverted. For an avo, there’s no time for this and so much fruit was spoilt by the time it reached another market.

When things go wrong, they go spectacularly wrong! The result is that avo farmers have not prospered this year which will affect next year as inputs are curtailed. Despite this I heard so much positivity – farmers really are the most resilient breed. They buoy themselves through faith in the work Subtrop is doing to open up new export markets, continued development into preserving fruit as well as development of local markets.

I don’t often get to attend a Farmers’ Day so when my planned road trip fell over the same time as the once-in-three-years Levubu Farmers’ Day, I was ecstatic. The setting was spectacular; held on the Maclands Estate – they have a beautiful large dam and long avenues of mature trees. They had also put a lot of work into manicuring the lawns – if the intention was to impress … job done!

The day was specifically for macadamia and avocado farmers making it all the more perfect for TropicalBytes as we teeter on the edge of a crop change from macs over to avos. There were between 40 and 50 exhibitors and/or sponsors.

The talks were a hybrid of English and Afrikaans so I recorded them and have done my best to translate the content into a summary below. DISCLAIMER: Those of you who have met me know that my Afrikaans is shocking!

LEVUBU FARMERS’ DAY SPEAKERS:

Standard Bank was the lead sponsor and their Agri-specialist for the Limpopo and Mpumalanga regions got up and said all the right things about supporting the farmers.

Dr Theo de Jager spoke about the forces that have an influence on agriculture. Dr de Jager’s doctorate is in philosophy. He is a farmer and currently Executive Director at SAAI (Southern African Agri Initiative).  Here’s a brief overview of his message:

  • Swimming upstream is to test the natural forces and often results in failure.
  • The where, how and what we farm should be influenced by natural forces.
  • In our current times, paradigms are shifting so fast that it is difficult to keep up (adapt).
  • All over the world, big farmers are getting bigger and small farmers are dwindling.
  • Success depends on your competitiveness. In farming we are competing against everything else that the consumer (housewife) sees in front of her on the ‘grocery store’ shelves.
  • She buys in line with her beliefs; which are influenced by social media, morality, affordability and availability.
  • Other influences are events like Covid and the current Russia-Ukraine war. Food production is not halted by these trials but it is impacted in terms of:
    • Markets (some disappear like curb-side markets and corner delis)
    • Infrastructure channels (access to traditional logistics)
    • Delivery patterns change (frequency and locality – no more school feeding schemes, restaurants etc)
  • Farmers need to pivot quickly and see what else and how else they can produce given the equipment and farming conditions he has.
  • Not all farmers survive in these quick-changing times, especially those who are not subsidised or supported by their governments.
  • The food security status of a country becomes a focal point:
    • In a stable environment food security does not relate solely to a country’s ability to produce its own food. It is an indication of how well they can access food; do they have something of value (eg: technology) that they can offer in exchange for food – again, competitiveness comes into play.
    • In an unstable environment (when food availability is threatened) it all comes back to food only. Covid taught us this – we can live without a lot of things but we cannot live without food.
    • The centralisation of power in food production (with big corporates) is highlighted in times like these and it is the biggest threat of our era.
  • Monopolisation of agriculture is disastrous – smaller farmers play a VITAL role is stabilising the world both in, and out of, turmoil.
  • When you see a farm gate sign that shows that a particular family name is linked to a particular piece of land you know that the dynamic there is different …
    • Small farmers farm for the future – for their children’s children.
    • The values, expertise and integrity in these environments is also different.
    • The biggest advantage that small farmers have is their limitless capacity – the way they pick themselves up when there’s nothing left (like after hail, fire or pest infestation) and start again. This strength of character cannot be taught in university; it comes only through watching your ancestors do the same and by having a steadfast responsibility for YOUR piece of land.
  • But more of our society is now city-based; farmers are a dying breed; business is taking over agriculture. Big farmers are out-competing the smaller ones.
  • City families are different; they don’t work and live together to the extent that farming families do so they don’t have the same connection to each other. They are also not exposed to the cycle of life the way farming children are – it all influences the fibre in, and between, family members.
  • Small towns are the next to be affected by the ‘move to the cities’; to prosper, a town needs 3 legs: a primary school (which requires young families), a place of worship (which requires people of faith and fellowship) and a farmers’ co-op (which requires a productive agricultural community). If any one of these is missing, Dr de Jager believes the community will fall.
  • One of the strongest forces currently in the international policy environment is the ‘proteins debate’. He believes the push against animal-based proteins is beyond comprehension. The arguments are based on:
    • Often later proven to be unfounded like in the margarine vs butter debacle.
    • Farming is supposedly responsible for 26% of all the greenhouse gases in the world and 24% of that 26% comes from ruminants (animals that chew cud). The short cycle of methane gas in the atmosphere is broken down by the leaves of the grass and green matter that the cattle feed on – this natural cycle is a part of our planet; designed in to its function by the Creator. Unlike the more concerning energy and transport sector where ancient fossil fuels are depleted and polluted into the atmosphere with far more extensive and permanent damage.
    • City folk, unused to the cycle of life, find it disturbing to kill animals for food. Animals are the most ancient form of currency. More people own animals than anything else. It is the most basic form of ownership. Big business wants to centralise that wealth by taking it away from smaller business through the production of alternate proteins.

Dr de Jager believes that this push against animal-based protein is all about centralising power with big companies – you need a large factory and extensive technical input to make margarine but only one cow to make butter …  Bill Gates recently bought over 3 million hectares of land to grow yellow beans which will be turned in to alternate-protein food sources.

  • So, in summary, where does this leave the family farmer?
    • They have to progress with time in terms of technology, precision and accountability so that you meet the consumer and her needs.
    • They have to be responsible and able to answer the questions about HOW you’re producing food.
    • To remain competitive, they have to produce more with less; intensive rather than extensive farming.
  • Dr de Jager is optimistic about farming because there is a new breed of farmer who is focused on technology and precision (data) and what it can do for their farming operations.
  • Farmers have to do it for themselves; don’t expect anyone to do it for you or for big business or governments to make it easy. It never has been, and it never will be, easy but family farmers have been bred for that.

The CEO of SAMAC spoke about 2 points:

  1. Macadamia Tree census. This is currently being done to accurately determine the age and location of all trees in South Africa. This information will be used to pre-emptively open up markets in line with production. It takes about 10 years to open up new markets so this has to happen well in advance.
  2. Macadamia Industry Days on 11th & 12th October in White River, Mpumalanga.

Derek Donkin – Subtrop

For those of you who don’t know, Subtrop manages the SA avo, litchi and mango industries in SA but today he shared some valuable insight into the avo industry specifically:

NEW EXPORT MARKETS

  • Currently 99% of the SA’s export crop is going to Europe, UK and a little to Russia.
  • Subtrop has applied for access to the following markets for Avos: USA, China, Japan, India, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, Israel, Vietnam, Mexico and Malaysia. The first four are receiving the most urgent attention.
  • Access is based on being able to assure an importing country that they won’t be getting any pests with their avo deliveries. This requires extensive, scientific processes (steps detailed below) that can take many (up to 15) years.
New market access application process
1 Pest Info Package
2 Pest Risk Assessment
3 Quarantine Pest List
4 Mitigation
5 Operational Workplan
6 Verification Visit
7 Official signing
8 EXPORTS
  • This process is managed by the respective country’s governments but Subtrop supports and facilitates the process with our under-resourced SA officials.
  • This is where we are with regard to the countries currently on our radar:
New market access application process progress
1 Pest Info Package Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, Israel, Vietnam, Mexico, Malaysia, Pakistan
2 Pest Risk Assessment
3 Quarantine Pest List
4 Mitigation USA, China, Vietnam
5 Operational Workplan
6 Verification Visit India
7 Official signing Japan
8 EXPORTS

China: 2 months ago China advised that we had to provide the same mitigation strategy done in Kenya which is to fumigate the fruit with methyl bromide before the containers leave. Given the high toxicity risk and ozone damage inherent in the use of this chemical, Subtrop submitted strong evidence that the processes and procedures we have in place mean that the use of this gas is unwarranted. China has insisted on the methyl bromide regardless. So, an agreement was reached wherein South Africa will use the gas as long as China continues to review further evidence supporting the discontinuation thereof. We should be finalising this official signing and exporting to China by next year!

India: The verification visit is currently underway with an Indian delegation in the country right now, visiting farms and packhouses. All going well, we should be able to export to India in 2023.

Malaysia: We had an agreement here but it lapsed after a time of no exports and so we are restarting the process.

Japan: We have been in a deadlock here for almost 7 years. Japan insisted that we redo the research that showed our cold treatment effectively eradicates Oriental fruit fly (Bactrocera dorsalis). 3 weeks ago they started virtual observation via Zoom. We filmed what happened in laboratories. On Sunday (18 September) a Japanese official will be arriving in SA and spending a week in Nelspruit, with the researcher, so that he can observe for himself what is there when fruit is taken out of the 3-week cold treatment process. The extreme involvement of these Japanese officials is an indication of what’s to come when we start exporting there … we cannot export and hope for the best – It will come back to bite us …

USA: will be a great one to access but there is lots of politics involved in terms of trade … they want to supply us with pork and chicken before we can put avos on their tables …

ACCREDITATION

There is so much administration involved in fulfilling certification requirements; farmers, especially small ones are being bogged down by the manpower and financial load. As there is so much duplication across the various accreditations, it has been requested that the bodies work together so that the process is simplified.  Through Fruit South Africa, a study is currently being done to assess what is required from farmers to achieve the accreditations. The results should be out by the end of this month and Fruit SA will use this to highlight the duplication and associated costs. Early results show that the smaller the farmer, the more dire the impact and therefore it’s more difficult for them than big farmers. This fact will be used to convince consumers that, through high accreditation demands, they are hurting the smaller farmers most.

EARLY SEASON AVOS

Tanzanian imports are landing in SA at the same time as our early season crop and farmers have no sight of these imports until they meet them on the market. Previously, SA farmers were realising a better price at this stage of the season. To enable a more strategic approach going forward, import volumes will be shared weekly so that we can manage our own internal supply on to these markets. This will be done through better coordination with the Fresh Produce Importers Association by SubTrop.

Inspections on the market are also receiving attention, through Prokon; currently the Dept of Agric inspections are substandard. SubTrop is working toward a solution where Quality and Phytosanitary inspections are done at the same place and on ALL deliveries, including the early morning ones (which have proven to be a little inconvenient for some Agric Dept inspectors).

SUBTROP MARKETING SYMPOSIUM

Is on 9th November, in White River, Mpumalanga. Registrations are being done online. It’ll be the first one since 2019.

And that’s the end of what must be the shortest TropicalBytes story ever. As I’ve been told, many times, that our stories are usually too long I hope this one is a welcome change.

Next edition will bring some more info on the Road Trip and what TropicalBytes’ readers have in store over the next few months.